LONG-RUN AND SHORT-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND STOCK PRICES IN PAKISTAN The Case of Lahore Stock Exchange

The movements in the stock prices are an important indicator of the economy. The intention of this study was to examine long-run and short-run relationships between Lahore Stock Exchange and macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The monthly data from December 2002 to June 2008 was used in this study. The results revealed that there was a negative impact of consumer price index on stock returns, while, industrial production index, real effective exchange rate, money supply had a significant positive effect on the stock returns in the long-run. The VECM analysis illustrated that the coefficients of ecm1 (–1), and ecm2 (–1) were significant with negative signs. The coefficients of both error correction terms showed high speed of adjustment. The results of variance decompositions revealed that out of five macroeconomic variables consumer price index showed greater forecast error for LSE25 Index.

* Publised in Pakistan Economic and Social Review, Volume 47, No. 2 (Winter 2009), pp. 183-198

Flexible on Line Learning on Educational Institution in Pakistan

On-line learning is getting very much popularity in educational institutions and many academic institutions. Online learning allows students to replicate upon the resources and their responses but less sense of control on student. Today, online learning is provided using a variety of instructional delivery systems. In Pakistan online learning is a new trend. The source of collecting data was university and college students in Islamabad and Rawalpindi region. Simple descriptive analysis was conducted by using SPSS. Majority of the respondents agreed that the
access to modern technology in country and background of computer knowledge plays an important role regarding online learning.


* Published in INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH IN BUSINESS COPY RIGHT © 2010 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research, JUNE 2010
VOL 2, NO 2

Monetary Expansion and Stock Returns in Pakistan

The objective of the paper is to examine the causal relationship between money supply and stock prices in Pakistan. Two measures of money stocks (M1 and M2) and six stock price indices (general and five sectoral) were taken for the period June 1991 to June 1999.
The co-integration analysis indicates a long run relationship between stock prices and money supply for both M1 and M2. The Error Correction Model, on the other hand, does not endorse the long run relationship between stock prices and M1. Regarding long run relationship between stock prices and M2, the model suggests a unidirectional causality running from M2 to stock prices. The model also shows the evidence of short run effects of M2 on stock prices. The analysis suggests that the stock market is not efficient with respect to money supply.

* The Pakistan Development Review 38 : 4 Part II (Winter 1999) pp. 769–776
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THE DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN PAKISTAN

The paper empirically identifies the determinants of growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan over the period 1961 to 2003. Our main interest is to study how different variables or indicators reflecting trade, fiscal and financial sector liberalization attract FDI in Pakistan. The study uses the Cointegration and error-correction techniques to identify the variables in explaining the FDI in Pakistan. The study considers the tariff rate, exchange rate, tax rate, credit to private sector and index of general share price variables if they explain the inflow of foreign direct investment. Also included wages and per capita GDP to test for relative demand for labor and market size hypotheses. All variables indicated correct signs and are statistically significant except for wage rate and share price index. The study clearly emphasizes the role of these policy variables in attracting FDI and determining its growth in both short and long run in Pakistan. The study also indicates a positive and significant impact of reforms on FDI in Pakistan.
*Submitted for the 20th Annual PSDE Conference to be held on 10-12 January 2005,Islamabad.